By Alex Goff - eRugbyNews.com

The mood around the USA 7s team in 2007-08 was optimistic. Their performances were getting better, they were being invited to more tournaments, and they were winning more.

So it was something of a shock to see the USA open their account last season 0-5. Certainly there were mitigating factors, and it wasn’t as bad as it looked, since the Eagles led all but one of those games. But the key thing was they started poorly.

After that, it was most assuredly a good season. They earned an IRB ranking and an invitation to join the core 12. But it’s important also to avoid getting ahead of ourselves. The USA 7s team, for all their improvement, were essentially a .500 team (overall season record 14-18-1, without Dubai, 14-13-1).

They generally expected to beat the non-core teams they played, and had found several other core teams – Canada, France, Scotland, Wales, England, Kenya – who they were capable of beating on a relatively regular basis.

Against core teams other than New Zealand, South Africa and Fiji, the USA was 10-12-1, and claimed the scalps of Samoa, Canada, France, England, Argentina, Kenya and Scotland.

Losing margins against these teams were, on the whole, very small. Seven of the 12 losses were by less than a try, and the average losing margin, skewed as it is by two big losses, was only 10. Conversely, of course, they rarely blew anyone out, either, with 29-14 over Scotland being their biggest margin of victory.

Against non-core teams they were obviously more successful and that’s what you expect. The Eagles won four out of five of those games (losing to Zimbabwe in, you guessed it, the first tournament in Dubai). Average score was 35-16.

So against most core teams and non-core teams the Eagles did well – 14-13-1. Where they faltered was against the best. Against New Zealand, South Africa and Fiji the Eagles were 0-5, scoring only two tries and giving up an average of 39 points a game.

USA coach Al Caravelli has targeted improvement against these monoliths of the IRB 7s Series and he has some justification to expect it.

Why? First off, speed. The Eagle team is, overall, the fastest it has ever been. There’s no Z Ngwenya, but that’s offset by having several players who are very close to Ngwenya’s pace, including Justin Boyd and Anwar Salaam, and several forwards who can really motor.

Second off, deception. While he won’t admit it, Caravelli didn’t fret too much over losing to these big three. He often started reserve players in those games to give them a taste of what was expected and rest some other players. If he fields his improved No.1 lineup, things could change.

Third, it’s happened before. Scores against England from 2005-2007 were 26-10, 45-5 and 40-5, all in England’s favor. Last season, the Eagles were 1-1 with England, winning by a try and losing by a try. It was essentially a 32 point-per-game turnaround.

Also last year, the Eagles lost to Samoa, who would finish the season in 3rd place, 29-0 in Dubai, but a week later beat them 24-19. That was a 34-point turnaround.

It is possible, then, to think that the USA might improve six points a game over the coming season? That would turn one tie and six losses into victories. If they do make such an improvement, we think the improvement against the top teams will be even greater because of the factors stated above. That won’t mean a victory right off, but if they’re in the ballpark, they can pull off an upset.

Even if they don't, a six point-per-game imrpovement turns a .439 team into a .636 team, and that kind of record puts you squarely in the best six teams in the world.